In a hurry: Canadians could be gearing up to enter the housing market again
Some Canadians who have been on the sidelines in the face of high prices and interest rates may be preparing to jump back into the market, a new study suggests.
According to Dye & Durham’s latest Consumer Trends Report released this morning, homebuying intentions appear to be on the rise. A survey of 1,001 Canadians found that one in 10 would like to sell their home and buy a new one within the next 12 months. . This is double the number of people who sold or bought a new home in the past year, Dye & Durham said.
Intentions among first-time home buyers are also increasing, with 8 per cent saying they are considering buying a home within the next year, compared to 4 per cent who already bought their first home last year. The number of people planning to buy an investment property or holiday home is also up to 8%, while the number of people who have pulled the trigger on a purchase in the past 12 months is 4%.
That doesn’t mean Canadians aren’t worried about high interest rates. In fact, 23% said they would wait and watch the housing market until interest rates come down. Many people also remain concerned about affordability, with 24% saying they won’t buy until home prices fall. But with the Bank of Canada signaling an end to months of aggressive rate hikes, Dye & Durham predicts “brighter days ahead” for the housing market.
“As interest rates begin to hold and eventually decline, we expect to see significant increases in areas such as real estate transactions,” said Martha Vallance, chief operating officer at Dye & Durham. said.
Still, high interest rates are putting pressure on Canadians’ wallets. Most people report spending more on groceries, gas, car insurance, and home insurance over the past year, and their savings banks have taken a hit. More than half of those surveyed said they had been forced to stop allocating funds to personal savings, and 45% said they had abandoned their emergency savings. Retirement savings have also been frozen, with 35% saying they have had to stop contributing to a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP). Additionally, 39% say they are worse off financially this year than last.
“It’s clear that many Canadians are feeling constrained in this high interest rate environment and have felt their purchasing power constrained over the past year,” Vallance said.
That may be contributing to the overall pessimism about Canada’s economy. The survey found that more than half expect the country to enter a recession in 2023, while 32% believe it is already in it.
But economists appear to be far more optimistic, believing Canada has a good chance of avoiding a recession, according to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists. Economic growth is expected to be 0.3% in the second half of this year, which is higher than the zero growth predicted in the August survey. And economists say growth will pick up in 2024 and things will only get better from there.
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Florida has surpassed New York to become the second most valuable housing market in the U.S., according to a new study from Zillow.
Total U.S. housing has increased by more than $2.6 trillion over the past year, contrary to expectations that higher borrowing costs would lead to a longer recession, Giroux said. Lower supply levels, reinforced by a lock-in effect where current mortgage borrowers are reluctant to part with lower-cost loans, are pushing prices nationwide to new highs.
The benefits are not evenly spread across the country. In California, which accounts for about one-fifth of the U.S. housing market, prices have been declining since June 2022. But in Florida, residential real estate values rose by $160 billion during this period, putting the Sunshine State ahead of New York. National ranking.
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Today’s Posthaste is written by Victoria Wells, with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, the Canadian Press and Bloomberg.
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